Forget the Nuclear Codes. Here’s How Trump Could Launch Nukes With His Tweets.
You should worry less about Trump launching a nuke and more about the duty officers who think he might
Everyone worries about Trump and nukes.
They worry about the military aide with the briefcase, which is called the football.
They worry about the nuclear codes he’ll receive on a card, which is called the biscuit.
They worry about our president-elect’s impudence, his ignorance, his thin skin — which is why he’s called a child.
And come January 20th, that child will have the ability to kill us all.
He’ll be able to launch one missile or 2,000 from submarines at sea or the corner of some far Nebraskan field. Nothing can stop that, except a mutiny. And how can you trust a man, the question goes, who you can bait with a tweet?
You can’t.
But you shouldn’t worry too much about a trigger-happy Trump.
Instead, you should worry about a trigger-happy Stanislav Petrov:
On September 26, 1983, just three weeks after the Soviet military had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to five more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm, and his decision is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in large-scale nuclear war. Investigation later confirmed that the Soviet satellite warning system had indeed malfunctioned.
This was the height of the cold war. Tensions were high. But Petrov kept his wits. He knew the warning system was buggy. He’d also been trained to expect a full-scale nuclear assault. Five missiles seemed an illogical start. We were spared.
Would we be spared today?
It’s worth noting: In 1983, nobody consulted Reagan. Nobody informed the Pentagon. The DEW line didn’t light up. There were no klaxons in Kansas. There was just a decision made in Moscow by a duty officer named Stanislav Petrov. And had his bit flipped the other way, boom.
The greatest safeguard against this circumstance, some will say, is enhanced relations with Russia; IOW, thank God for Trump. But even if that were true, it misses the point entirely.
The point is not that Petrov was Russian.
The point is not the Cold War.
The point is that America had no say in whether America got nuked. The point is that a computer in another country made a mistake and a duty officer made a guess.
What would his guess be today?
How would he judge the likelihood that American leadership was rational?What facts about American leadership would come to mind? What presidential tweets?
Does he see a man criticizing his own citizens?
Criticizing the press?
Criticizing artists?
Does he see a man celebrating death?
Or a man claiming the democratic process is, itself, sham?
What news articles quoting Trump’s stance on nuclear weapons would he recall? Does he even remember Trump’s stance? Would he have to check Snopes before launch?
Trump has never argued we should nuke other countries. The closest he’s come is saying he “wouldn’t take any cards off the table.” But that, too, is not the point.
The point is that he’s erratic, prone to making verbal attacks, and publicly insecure. That wouldn’t have given Stanislav Petrov much confidence. And these days, there are Stanislav Petrovs all over the world. Australian airmen monitoring Jindalee. Canadian airmen operating the NWS. Indian airmen piloting AWACS. Israeli airmen running TERRA. These are not perfect technologies. These are not perfect men. They may not make perfect guesses.
But they do read Twitter. They may be on Facebook. One wonders: is there a special clause protecting servicemen from filter bubbles? How about from propaganda?
So yes, worry about our president-elect: one tiny, fragile man, his jowls a thermonuclear orange.
But also say a prayer for the Stanislav Petrovs of the world: maybe lonely, maybe bored, but definitely reading Donald J. Trump’s tweets.
